Regimes and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria: An analysis of Yar’Adua-Jonathan and Buhari’s regimes

Abstract

This study compares Nigeria’s macroeconomic performance under Presidents Yar’ Adua– Jonathan (2007–2015) and Muhammadu Buhari (2015–2023). The study adopts a descriptive method and is guided by political economy, macroeconomic stabilization, and institutional theories. The study reveals that the Yar’ Adua–Jonathan regime adopted expansionary fiscal policies and subsidy programs, whereas the Buhari regime implemented a budget- conscious approach due to different political inspirations and public choice dynamics. The  policies  adopted  by  both  regimes  differently  impacted  the  GDP,  inflation  rates, unemployment levels, and debt management. The administration of Yar’ Adua–Jonathan achieved an average GDP growth rate of 6.0%, a 10.8% inflation rate, an unemployment rate of 3.82%, an infant mortality rate of 82.8/1000, and an average debt service of $1.5 billion between 2008 and 2015. Contrarily, the Buhari administration recorded an average GDP growth rate of 1.4%, an inflation rate of 16.2%, an unemployment rate of 4.7%, a debt service of $6.2 billion, and an infant mortality rate of 73.7/1000 between 2016 and 2023. Buhari’s leadership approach contributed to policy failures that hampered economic growth, whereas the approach of the Yar’ Adua–Jonathan administration contributed to healthier economic growth recorded between 2007 and 2015. Therefore, the study recommends that the government ‘s reforms should focus on expansionary fiscal policies to boost economic growth and de-emphasize monetary and foreign exchange restrictions.