Analyzing South Korea’s COVID-19 Policy Strategy Using a Regression Discontinuity Research Design

Abstract

Since its first outbreak in 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been one of the most devastating global disasters, resulting in millions of casualties worldwide. While governments have put tremendous efforts into controlling and eradicating the virus, the unprecedented nature of COVID-19 calls into question the government’s capacity for disease management. This study analyzed the effectiveness of South Korea’s COVID-19 policy by focusing on the causal relationship between instantaneous reproduction number,  , and three different restriction policies: business closure, private gathering limit, and vaccine pass requirement. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design with a non-parametric estimation, this study found a positive effect of each restriction policy on decreasing . The results suggest that not only traditional restrictive strategies, such as business closure and gathering restriction, but also digital capacity could play a significant role in disaster management during global pandemics.